In my previous article, A Stronger Retail Economy for San Ramon, I examined how San Ramon generates substantially less taxable retail activity per resident than neighboring cities.
But what happens when we look at San Ramon's performance over time?
Three Consecutive Years of Declining Retail Sales
How nearby retail economies have changed
Annual taxable retail and restaurant sales
View annual sales and percentage changes for all five cities
| City | Year | Taxable sales | Change since 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Ramon | 2022 | $740,347,049 | +0.0% |
| San Ramon | 2023 | $732,354,621 | -1.1% |
| San Ramon | 2024 | $722,915,318 | -2.4% |
| San Ramon | 2025 | $698,715,268 | -5.6% |
| Dublin | 2022 | $1,495,035,506 | +0.0% |
| Dublin | 2023 | $1,559,327,232 | +4.3% |
| Dublin | 2024 | $1,617,664,426 | +8.2% |
| Dublin | 2025 | $1,827,824,825 | +22.3% |
| Brentwood | 2022 | $826,473,165 | +0.0% |
| Brentwood | 2023 | $831,164,812 | +0.6% |
| Brentwood | 2024 | $836,863,816 | +1.3% |
| Brentwood | 2025 | $915,090,931 | +10.7% |
| Pleasanton | 2022 | $1,466,944,994 | +0.0% |
| Pleasanton | 2023 | $1,402,154,365 | -4.4% |
| Pleasanton | 2024 | $1,390,254,072 | -5.2% |
| Pleasanton | 2025 | $1,503,461,344 | +2.5% |
| Walnut Creek | 2022 | $2,082,837,279 | +0.0% |
| Walnut Creek | 2023 | $2,071,470,955 | -0.5% |
| Walnut Creek | 2024 | $2,052,797,626 | -1.4% |
| Walnut Creek | 2025 | $2,091,437,729 | +0.4% |
That's a $42 million decline over just three years.
Meanwhile, several neighboring cities have seen growth in their retail economies. Between 2022 and 2025, Dublin's annual taxable sales increased by 22%, while Brentwood's grew by 11%.
These cities faced many of the same regional economic pressures, yet their retail economies moved in very different directions.
Three consecutive years of decline should be a wake-up call.
Our own residents spend money elsewhere.
San Ramon's retail challenges aren't new. The city commissioned a study that identified substantial gaps in our local retail market years ago. The 2022 Retail Development Opportunities Analysis estimated a $280.5 million annual gap between resident retail spending potential and sales at local businesses - that means residents spend that money elsewhere.
San Ramon's retail leakage reflects a mismatch between the purchasing power of our residents and the shopping options available locally. Many residents travel to neighboring cities for clothing, furniture, general merchandise, and other purchases that could potentially be made closer to home.
This isn't simply about attracting more shoppers from outside San Ramon. We also need to do a better job of serving our own residents. Every purchase made elsewhere represents a missed opportunity for local businesses and potentially for our city's sales tax revenue.
Local sales fall short of estimated resident demand
Estimated annual gap: $280.5 million
Estimated annual gap: $446.5 million
Estimated annual gap: $262.4 million
View the study’s dollar figures
| Category | Resident demand | Local sales | Estimated gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excluding automobiles and gasoline | $955,755,715 | $675,255,121 | $280,500,594 |
| Including automobiles and gasoline | $1,253,065,310 | $806,594,436 | $446,470,874 |
| Shopping goods | $477,636,247 | $215,285,658 | $262,350,589 |
Source: Retail Development Opportunities Analysis, Table ES-2 (printed page 7) and Table ES-3 (printed page 8), prepared for the City of San Ramon by The Natelson Dale Group, May 23, 2022. The figure including automobiles and gasoline is calculated from Table ES-2’s total demand minus total local sales.
Are We Prioritizing Economic Development?
We are planning thousands of new homes at Bishop Ranch, much of it on land previously used for commercial offices. While housing is important, we also need a deliberate strategy to attract employers, retailers, restaurants, and entertainment alongside those homes.
More residents alone will not automatically create a thriving local economy.
And while our retail economy was declining, San Ramon eliminated its Economic Development Advisory Committee.
This is particularly striking because our General Plan previously called for maintaining the committee to advise City Council and staff on economic development, redevelopment, and employment.
The city still has economic development staff, but a dedicated advisory committee provides something different: a regular forum for business owners, residents, and community representatives to help shape our economic priorities.
The committee's elimination did not cause the decline. Sales were already falling. But it raises an important question:
Why reduce opportunities for public involvement in economic development at a time when our local economy needs greater attention?
We Need a Plan to Reverse the Decline
I believe San Ramon should take several concrete steps.
1. Strengthen business recruitment. Dedicate economic development staff to proactive recruitment for employers, retailers, restaurants, and growing companies rather than waiting for businesses to approach us.
2. Protect our commercial and employment base. As Bishop Ranch redevelops, preserve opportunities for future jobs, offices, retail, and businesses alongside new housing.
3. Make it easier to open a business. Streamline permitting, reduce unnecessary delays, and provide better support for local entrepreneurs.
4. Set measurable economic development goals. Track taxable retail sales, commercial vacancies, business recruitment, and spending leakage. Publish the results regularly so residents can evaluate our progress.
5. Reestablish the Economic Development Advisory Committee. Bring together business owners, residents, employers, and commercial property representatives to help shape our city's economic future.
Grow Our Tax Base, Not Our Tax Rates
In 2025, San Ramon increased its sales tax by one percentage point through Measure N, a temporary tax intended to last ten years.
I want to ensure that this tax expires as promised rather than being renewed, but that requires us to make meaningful progress toward long-term financial stability.
A higher sales tax rate is not a substitute for a stronger retail economy.
We need more jobs, more businesses, more customers, and more economic activity - not simply higher taxes on the transactions already taking place.
San Ramon has tremendous potential. We have strong purchasing power, a strategic location in the Tri-Valley, and an extraordinary opportunity to develop a vibrant, walkable downtown at Bishop Ranch.
Our retail sales have fallen for three consecutive years. We need to ask whether our current policies are producing the results residents deserve - and what we can do differently.
It's time to make economic development a genuine priority, with measurable goals and a clear plan to reverse the decline.
Sources: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration, Total Retail and Food Services taxable sales, 2022–2025; City of San Ramon General Plan 2035, Economic Development policies; City of San Ramon Measure N documentation.